There are two approaches to this
question. Those who focus on Nigeria’s potential and, therefore, see
Nigeria’s glass as only half full, will tell you that the country
remains a “great” one (a self-delusion that once characterised our
rebranding slogan). But those who focus on the perpetual wastage of
Nigeria’s potential, and, therefore, see the country’s glass as
half-empty, will tell you that Nigeria is a “failing” (if not “failed”)
state. The ruling class belongs to the first group, while the vast
majority of the population belongs to the latter.
Those who belong to the latter group are
not denying Nigeria’s human and natural resources as well as her
fertile land and agricultural potential. They are not even denying what
Nigeria’s ruling class has been able to accomplish since independence.
What they are saying is that Nigeria’s future has been seriously
compromised by a myopic and corrupt leadership, fixated on oil resources
to the neglect of other natural resources as well as human and
agricultural potential. The consequences would have been more tolerable
had oil and gas revenues been judiciously expended for sustainable
development instead of being repeatedly looted. What is left is a
country in crisis on all fronts. Hubert Ogunde’s “Yoruba ro’nu”, a lyric
composed following the Western Nigeria crisis of 1964-65, could now be
adapted for Nigeria as a whole.
But don’t be surprised that, in
consonance with typical Nigerian leadership culture, the ruling class,
always eager to protect its self-interest, might consider this
discussion unpatriotic. However, such a negative view ignores Nigeria’s
relative under-development, mass poverty, and the varied experiences of
millions of suffering Nigerians. Moreover, it ignores the perception
about Nigeria held by the international community. Anyone in doubt about
Nigeria’s freefall should consider the following facts.
First, given enormous natural and human
resources, Nigeria’s progress has been painfully too slow since
independence and it has all but stagnated since 2006, a significant year
for three reasons. One, that was the year former President Olusegun
Obasanjo’s third term plans fell apart and the politics of succession
began, leading to the imposition of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua on
the country. Two, Yar’Adua turned out to be a lame President on account
of an undisclosed terminal illness. The looting of the treasury during
his administration put the country in financial abyss, which was
worsened by the global financial crisis of 2008. Endemic corruption has
prevented Nigeria’s full recovery, despite rising oil revenues. Today,
virtually every branch of government has showcased more cases of
corruption and grandstanding than substantive achievements. Three, as I
will discuss later, 2006 was also the year Nigeria fell into the “Alert”
category on the Failed States Index.
Second, rather than make progress, the
country has fallen even further below standards, especially in
corruption, infrastructure, and security. True, corruption affects our
lives but it does not directly take our lives. But poor or inadequate
infrastructure and insecurity often do. Thousands die on the country’s
decrepit highways just as thousands lose their lives and property to
terrorists, armed robbers, kidnappers, and pirates. For the first time
in the country’s history, an internal terrorist organisation, typified
by suicide bombings and shifting targets, has been in competition for
state power for about two years, forcing the government to enter into
third party negotiations, none of which has been successful so far.
Third, fractures have intensified along
regional, religious, and ethic divisions. To complicate matters, the
elite is also fractured, often along these divisions, on how to solve
the problems facing the country. There are indications already that
these fractures will intensify even more when the next presidential
election comes around in 2015. But these fractures are not new. They
were responsible for the fall of previous Repubics and the rise of
military coups. They even once led to a full blown civil war. What is
new is the form these fractures have taken in the last two years; the
intensity of competing claims along fracture lines; and the government’s
fumbling approach to the ensuing problems.
The cumulative effects of these
shortcomings are illustrated daily in poor infrastructure; inadequate
health facilities; declining educational outcomes and standards; rising
unemployment; growing food insecurity; erosion of values; and lopsided
distribution of political goods in favour of the ruling class and its
allies.
If Nigerian leaders fail to acknowledge
the sufferings and complaints of fellow citizens, they should at least
ponder the reaction of the international community, especially as
revealed in three major international indices, all pointing toward a
failed state.
First, for six years in a row, the 2012
Failed States Index, which ranks countries on 12 social, political, and
economic indicators, puts Nigeria in the bottom “Alert” category as the
14th country in the world that is most likely to fail. Once again,
Nigeria falls into this ignoble category some war-torn countries, such
as Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq belong.
Similarly, Nigeria ranked very poorly on
the latest Corruption Perception and Human Development Indices. After
countries worldwide were ranked on bribery, kickbacks, embezzlement, and
the strength and effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts, Nigeria
emerged near the bottom at 143 on the 2011 CPI. Given all the corruption
scandals within the past year, the 2012 CPI (due out on Dec 5) is
likely to be worse.
On the leading indicators that affect
citizens’ well-being, the Human Development Index also has bad news for
Nigeria. In a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy,
education, standards of living, and quality of life for countries
worldwide, Nigeria ranked at 156 in the bottom category of “Low Human
Development”.
Of course, Nigeria can boast of its high
ranking as the tenth largest oil producer, owner of the tenth largest
oil and gas reserves, and the sixth largest oil exporter in the world.
She can also tout her ranking as the seventh largest country on earth.
However, Nigerian leaders’ failure to capitalise on these positive
rankings in transforming Nigeria into a “strong and virile nation”, as
envisaged by the founding fathers, continues to make the Nigerian glass
half empty.
If the oil and gas industry were to
suddenly collapse, what would Nigerian leaders do to sustain the
country’s teeming population? This is a thought they should begin to
entertain as many countries worldwide are working harder and harder on
developing alternative sources of energy. Economic profligacy should end
and the diversification of the economy should begin in earnest.
Otherwise, the Nigerian glass will continue to fall below the half mark
until it is completely empty.
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